2012 VSU CHASE FOR THE CHAMPIONSHIP BREAKDOWN
Written by 2-time Cup Champ:
HOT OFF THE PRESS! Lookie lookie! Dale Reynolds (the man you all love to hate...lol) back here yet again for yet another championship discussion! We got done predicting the NuffWorld Pure-Sim championship a few nights ago. So today I am going to go ahead and do a championship break down of the 2012 NuffWorld VSU Cup Series championship. Chuck Garcia gave me the permission to do it (thank you Chuck) because he’s done the championship or chase breakdowns as of recently. So I promise to give you as good a breakdown as Chuck would! So lets get to it shall we!
Coming up this week is race 9 of 10 for the VSU Cup Series chase; Phoenix. Phoenix is a very fun track after it’s re-configuration and I expect a pretty wild race, being that it will be the first time out for about 50% of the guys racing on Saturday. Those of us who ran either in the RSN truck race this past week, or those who ran the NuffWorld Pure-Sim race last night, they may have an idea of what to expect over those who havent seen the track in race competition yet.
So going into Phoenix, here is what you need to know. The most points you can gain in one race is 48. So with 2 races left, that makes it a maximum of 96 points. Looking at the points standings heading into Phoenix, the top 9 are still mathematically eligible to win the championship. Dale Reynolds (yours truly) in 10th place and behind by 106 points, and anyone behind me are now eliminated from any possible championship. So the top 9 consist of Bruce Turner, Lewis Bussa (-21), Darren Benge (-52), Ben Brittain (-54), Jovan Cherry (-57), Dennis Wright (-80), Kevin Kelley (-81), Stephen Mahannah (-83), and Jacob Popoloski (-90). We know once again that Jacob is suspended until 2014, but as I said in the last article, we will write this as if he;s still eligible to race. But those are your top 9 drivers still eligible for the championship!
Heading into Phoenix as your championship leader is Bruce Turner! Bruce Turner has surely stunned a lot of people and turned quite a few heads (myself included) at his late-season success. Bruce finally got that first career win at Kansas, and is holding a 21 point lead on Lewis Bussa. Lewis Bussa currently is the driver with more wins on the 2012 circuit than anyone else, with 8 wins. Bussa was also the winner last week down in Texas, where he cut his deficit to Bruce from 29 points.
By the way.... If you Wondering how the Spring Race went... I mean... wayyyyy back in March.... JEnochs led the way as a whopping 41 Nuffers competed!! take a peek !! The Kobalt Tools 400
Now, using the same theory as in the previous article as far as Bruce Turner’s championship hopes go, the most that anyone can gain on him is 96 points. Add 96 points to 2nd place Lewis Bussa’s current points of 2,309 and that gets Bussa a maximum total of 2,405 possible points. Take that total now and subtract Bruce Turners’s current points of 2,330 and that reveals the magic number for Bruce; 75. However, that is to TIE Bussa in the championship standings. Since a tiebreaker goes to the person with the most wins, that would make Bussa the champion. SO it needs to be at least one more point, which would make it 76. If Bruce can get 76 points in the combined 2 races we have left, he will walk away with the 2012 championship!
Now onto 3rd place of Darren Benge. Darren is more than one full race out of the points lead. So in simpler terms, if Bruce simply starts up his car and makes one lap at Phoenix, Darren has to hope for some bad luck to BOTH of the Top 2 drivers. For him to overcome Bruce, Bruce can’t finish in the top half of the field in BOTH races and Bussa cannot finish in the top 67% of the field in both races, WHILE maxing out most laps led and wins in the final two races. In fact, if Bruce can just keep his lead over Darren Benge to 49 points or more, Darren Benge and the rest of the field behind Darren will be eliminated going into Homestead and it will just be Bruce and Lewis for the championship.
For even more statistical data, take the 76 points needed for Bruce and then divide it into 96 which is the most anyone can gain in a single race and you come out with a .79 answer. This is the field ratio that Bruce needs to finish in the next two races to keep his championship. .79 is 79%, round it up to 80%. Bruce needs to finish in the top 80 percent of the field no matter what Bussa does. The same goes to Bussa, just reversed; Bussa needs to win and hope Bruce does not finish in the top 80 percent of the field.
In order to shorten up the article, I am going to include a small graph of the remaining drivers and the percentile of those ahead of them that those drivers cannot finish higher than in their chances to sneak away with a championship! And notice that the more positions you are behind, the harder it is because the more you have to hope you can leap-frog the guys in front of you, and not just the championship leaders!
GOOD LUCK NUFFERS !!!!!